Flat Tires and Flat Notes

This morning I'm sitting at a Goodyear Tire place.  Last night after a Watson & Nash show at Nashville's Third & Lindsley, I walked outside, loaded my gear up and heard the words, "Bro, you've got a flat", come out of my manager's mouth.  Great!  Long story short, Joe, Claire, our manager and me changed the tire in the cold rain.  

Last night was a bit of a wash, but I figured it would be that way.  Don't get me wrong, we had a great show and a small fun audience, but it was an unusual night…Our drummer had unexpectedly been put in the hospital for heart stints due to 90% blockage in his main artery…(Luckily he's o.k.) but due to the last minute change, and our back up drummer being out of town, Joe and I decided to do a small intimate acoustic set,  just the two of us.  A couple hours before the show, weather men were urging people to stay home and off the roads, due to drizzle, low temperature and a chance of black ice.   It was also a Monday night.  We typically avoid performing on Mondays and typically do mid week and weekend gigs when in town but for some reason we accepted a Monday night spot.  Due to a low turn out, which has been a little out of the norm for us lately, we cut the show a tiny bit shorter and rocked out our best songs for the few that were there.  After a quick load out, we packed out gear beneath the drizzle and were about to hop in my Explorer…Flat.

So, I here at Goodyear.  They are patching the tire and the guy has just talked me into rotating and balancing my tires.  I always let the guys at these type places talk me into extra stuff.  He urged me that I really needed to have those things done and since I don't want to be back up here in a week getting an "I told you so" glance, I'll let them.  Plus, I worry that they may intentionally unbalance my tires so I have to come back…I hate to think like that but I do.  So, rotate and balance away.  Hopefully I'll be rolling in a few minutes.

State of The Industry Address

More so than in past years, it seemed as though a gloom, a general feeling of despair, had settled on the music industry in 2010.  You could read it on the faces of the music execs on the row.  Cautious and anxious sentiments fell from their tongues.  "I've never seen it this bad", was the typical line you'd hear behind closed doors.  Many would talk about artists that had been signed and were hanging in limbo, on permanent pause, because promotions money had dried up or because caution in approaching a launch would not allow forward movement.  My co-writers would stop by the house or the studio and bemoan the scene on the row.  "No one's cutting outside songs and even if someone would digital downloading has royally screwed any chance of making decent royalties," one said.  The climate was bleak.  Words rang true BUT are these challenges not to be overcome?


A few of my co-writers and producer friends, who get together weekly for a discussion about music and the state of the industry, were having lunch in a back room at the Boundry with hit songwriter and industry veteran, Ralph Murphy.  Ralph made the comment, "boys, technology is always gonna try to screw you." We all knew that he was referring, most recently, to digital downloading, both legal and illegal.  (For more on the effect of digital downloading and it's effects on the music industry, read my very informative article/blog on the Limewire Debate.) There, however, was a deeper statement that was being echoed.  Note:  Technology will ALWAYS try to screw you.   In other words, ipods and digital downloading are nothing more than another, albeit huge, bump in the road that we the creators and marketers of music face.  We've faced challenges before.  When video killed the radio star and the music industry shifted from a 'music first' oriented business, pre-wide ranging TV exposure (technology) to more of an 'image first or at best hand-in-hand' oriented business the industry adapted.  We fixed our artist's teeth and noses, made them lose weight and bought them cool clothes.  We knew that the fat girl was no longer allowed to sing on the big stage.  


In 2000 (yes 2000, that's over ten years ago), an article titled 'Flat Notes' by Beverly Keel, noted that 2000's sales dropped 2% from 1999's sales in overall market share.  The industry had experienced a boom in the 90s thanks to Garth Brooks, Alan Jackson and Clint Black and more than 30 other acts who earned gold and platinum records.  During that time period, when pop was losing listeners, country was gaining and had nearly 19% market share.  Country music had never before experienced the success it had in the 90s.  With the success came increased revenue and expansion.  Chances were taken.  New labels opened and countless new acts were signed.  Of course, living high on the hog didn't last, as it never does.  Those who did not keep a watchful eye open for anticipated trends and store up a little extra for that proverbial rainy day, began to suffer.  What goes up must come down! A couple major issues surfaced on the initial roll back down the mountain that began to hit heavy on the pocketbooks of the decision makers.  Due to a rise in the popularity of pop/rock music, consolidation on radio and the quality of new country music being questioned, sales dropped, labels began folding and mid level artists began to suffer.  In the 2000 Flat Notes article, Barry Coburn, then president of Atlantic Records stated, "The real problem has been the development of new artists who haven't been successful enough to recover the investment made.  The cost of launching new artists is at an all-time high.  The business model doesn't really work in this kind of environment, so we need to re-evaluate all of the costs of breaking new artists." 


Another major issue that came to play was digital downloading, especially Napster (In it's original free, non-pay form).  Napster, in it's original form, operated between June 1999 and July 2001.  Its technology allowed people to easily share their MP3 files with other Napster users.  SIDE NOTE: This form of sharing bypassed the established market songs and lead to massive copyright violations of music, film media and other intellectual property.  Although the original service was shut down by court order, the damage had been done and the way was paved for decentralized peer-to-peer file distribution programs, which are harder to control.


The industry, at the time seemed to reach it's lowest in 2000.


In 2001 the dark cloud of despair began to rise and an emerging breed of new successful artists including Lonestar, Keith Urban,  Sara Evans, Lee Ann Womack, Brad Paisley, Andy Griggs and SHeDAISY were pulling the industry out of the doldrums.  In 2002, Country Music racked up 76.0 million units sold, which was 8.4 million units more than what was sold in 2001.  4 of the top 10 albums sold in 2002 were country albums and country accounted for 11.3% of the albums sold that year. For the first time in history country music had a record 7 albums topping the Billboard charts.  


Ups and downs...Fast forward from 2002 to 2009. According to Chet Flippo in the article, Time for Hand-Wringing? Or Time to Cowboy Up?

(April 9, 2009) "Recent country music surveys show a lingering country devotion to buying CDs. But is it showing up on the charts? This week's SoundScan report shows that no CDs released in 2009 have yet sold platinum. Pop or country. Zero. None."  Good in one sense but bad in another.

It's true that CD sales decreased dramatically between 2000-2010 but keep in mind that sales of albums were pretty low pre-90s.  The 1970s saw a huge decrease in album sales and 1980 continued that trend, with 34 million fewer units sold than in 1979. Major record labels were hurting and as many as 2,500 people in the music industry lost jobs. Country music sales were briefly revived in 1980 thanks to the popularity of the film Urban Cowboy. The new "Nashville Sound" a.k.a pop-country tunes with lush string arrangements  and synthesizers was the rave. 


The main point I'm trying to make is the music industry has and always will face challenges.  It will have it's ups and downs sale-wise.   Our industry, like many industries is in a recession but we'll play, strategize and pull out of it.  


We'll change the rules.


***I personally feel that the labels need to ban together and boycott itunes and other digital sales outlets by removing their artists from those digital distribution formats.  Steve Jobs isn't concerned about album sales unless they start effecting ipod sales.  Sure some people will take a hit initially but the future increase of album sales by those who no longer are able to download the songs will justify the radical move.   This move will not work unless all the major labels are on board.  It would mean a complete re-thinking from a union mindset.  Seriously, what is the consumer going to do?  Don't fear that they'll just shift to downloading the 'indie' music that isn't under the control of the label.  They won't.  People want someone to be a gate keeper, they need someone to tell them what is good.  They'll feel they are being cheated out of quality by 'having' to download non-label, indie material.  They'll then begin buying CDs again.


***If an overall staged boycott of itunes and other dd formats doesn't work,  we must make it to where consumers can only purchase full projects (Why is this important?  Read my previous blogs that discuss songwriter's incomes and the effect declining royalties are having on the industry and the quality of music as a whole.)


***Sign fewer artists, bring back artist development and allow those artists to endure with time.  The 'sign as many artists as possible, throw them to the wolves and see who survives' mentality will break the bank.  Sign fewer artists, invest more into those artist.


***Sign talent over image.  Image can always be worked on.


***With fewer signings, give higher draws and require the artists to cut outside songs that they have no hand in writing, unless they have an absolute smash hit.